Phillies 2013 draft pick Ben Wetzler

After taking two high school pitchers with their first two picks in the 2012 draft, the Phillies didn’t really add much depth in this draft.  A couple of the college arms could be solid minor leaguers and provide some decent ML innings at some point, but it wouldn’t surprise me if none of the high school arms sign.

Some of the college arms drafted late have a bit of potential but slipped due to injuries.  They’re certainly far from guaranteed signs though.

Four Year College Right-Handed Pitchers

9. Shane Martin, Southwestern Oklahoma State, 6’4 215, 22.10 Y.O.

For the second pitcher the Phillies drafted, there is remarkably little information available about Martin on the internet.  In his senior season, he struck out 72 and walked 31 in 104.1 innings.  He previously walked batters with greater frequency than that, so he did show some improvement as an amateur.  His sinker sits in the low 90′s apparently.

10. Jon Prosinski, Seton Hall, 6’3 195, 22.29 Y.O.

Prosinski has been Seton Hall’s ace for a while now.  His stuff isn’t overwhelming with a fastball around 90, but he also mixes in a changeup and breaking ball.  He throws a ton of strikes and only walked 13 in 108 innings his senior season.  The Big East is only an okay baseball conference, but he’s had success against tough opponents in big games.

16. Lee Ridenhour, Austin Peay, 6’3 187, 23.82 Y.O.

Ridenhour was drafted pretty late five years ago, and his path back to the draft took him through three schools with multiple ankle injuries.  He landed at Austin Peay, an under the radar quality program, and immediately became an ace for a postseason mainstay.  He started his college career at Kansas before transferring to a junior college.  He can pitch in the low to mid 90′s with an out pitch slider and a changeup.  He apparently still has some eligibility left, but a player that’s going to turn 24 soon wouldn’t be doing himself any favors going back to college.

18. Dan Child, Oregon State, 6’5 225, 20.85 Y.O.

Child has potential for two plus pitches, but keeping him from going back to the Beavers for his senior season isn’t a guarantee.  He has spent most of his career starting for Oregon State so far, but with a lot of effort in his delivery, he’s probably a reliever in the end.  He might be able to reach the mid-90′s with his fastball in short bursts, and his slider is a strikeout pitch.  With experience in a tough conference and with Team USA, he could move through a system quickly.

19. Matt Soren, Delaware, 6’5 225, 22.02 Y.O.

Soren has always left scouts wanting more, but his senior season at Delaware did show some improvement.  He was working his walk rate down to more manageable levels while maintaining the solid stuff that got him on the map in the first place.  His 90-92 MPH fastball could get a little harder in the bullpen, and he’s shown a pretty good breaking ball in the past.

22. Mark Leiter Jr, New Jersey Institute of Technology, 6’0 195, 22.22 Y.O.

While the Phillies regress back to late-90′s form, they draft the son of a pitcher from that era.  Leiter was pretty consistent at NJIT; despite not really having much stuff, he would regularly strike out about one batter an inning, allow a hit an inning and walk a bunch.  He’s a competitor with a high-80′s fastball and pair of breaking balls.

26. Chris Burgess, Oklahoma Christian University, 6’2 210, 22.77 Y.O.

Burgess went to three colleges, including two different 1-A programs before finally pitching a year in relief at OCU.  He was very good, striking out 52 in 41 innings.  Prior reports from much earlier in his career say that he works in the high-80′s to low-90′s with his fastball and also throws an average breaking ball.

27. Tyler Buckley, Arkansas-Little Rock, 6’5 230, 22.56 Y.O.

Buckley was not very good in two seasons at UALR, but he says he can sit in the low to mid-90′s.  He struck out 21 and walked 14 in 18.2 innings as a senior, and he says that an effective outing against Oklahoma, one of the better teams in the country, is what got teams interested.

31. Matthew Grimes, Georgia Tech, 6’6 210, 21.74 Y.O.

Grimes missed the entire 2013 season (plus much of 2012) due to Tommy John surgery.  Despite being taken so late, he’s probably one of the more interesting players the Phillies drafted.  Three years ago, he was a fourth round pick by the White Sox, but he chose to attend Georgia Tech instead.  Then, his fastball was in the 90-92 MPH range with a potential plus curveball.  If he was healthy, he probably would’ve gone much higher, and now he’ll have to decide if he wants to continue his rehab with a professional training staff or try to improve his stock with the Yellow Jackets.

34. David Whitehead, Elon, 6’4 240, 21.11 Y.O.

Like Grimes, Whitehead also underwent Tommy John surgery, but his was much more recent.  His college numbers were never impressive, but he showed in the off-season Cape Cod League that he does have a chance to get batters out at the next level, probably as a middle reliever.  His fastball sits in the low 90′s, but it has a heavy sink that helps him generate groundballs.  Neither his slider nor changeup are impressive pitches.

Left-Handed Pitchers

5. Ben Wetzler, Oregon State, 6’1 210, 21.72 Y.O.

Wetzler’s stuff is just okay, but he completes, can throw all of his pitches for strikes and mixes all of them in well.  His fastball has natural movement in the high-80′s to low 90′s, and his slider has potential to be an above average pitch.  He’s shown flashes of a changeup good enough giving him a chance to start, but that’ll take more work.  Despite a minor back injury to start the year, he’s durable and could reach the big leagues.

11. Denton Keys, Rye HS (Colorado), 6’3 190, 18.67 Y.O.

Keys was the first high school pitchers the Phillies drafted this year, but there’s a really good chance he doesn’t even sign and goes to Kansas.  He struck out over two batters an inning in his senior season, but his competition was poor at best.  He throws in the mid to high-80′s now, but with his size, he’s expected to add velocity to go along with a potential above average curveball.  Throw in the fact that he doesn’t really have a third pitch, and it seems likely that he’s headed for college.

17. Rob Marcello, Appalachian State, 6’3 230, 22.63 Y.O.

Marcello moved to the bullpen as a senior, and it allowed his fastball to play up into the mid-90′s in short bursts.  He struck out over a batter an inning in their closer’s role, but he still needs a ton of work on his command.  He walked 20 batters in 22.1 innings.

23. Christopher O’Hare, Fisher College, 6’2 195, 22.69 Y.O.

Competing at the NAIA level, O’Hare pitched to some comical numbers in his senior season, striking out 110 in 66.2 innings.  Reports about his stuff, albeit from high school, are underwhelming; his fastball is in the mid-80′s, and he mixes in a couple other pitches.  He pitched a couple years at Yale before transferring to Fisher for his last year of eligibility.

25. Cody Forsythe, Southern Illinois, 6’1 175, 22.70 Y.O.

Forsythe was pretty durable in the Missouri Valley Conference, throwing over 100 innings in each of his last three years.  In 346.2 career innings, he walked just 79 batters, or a little over two per nine innings.

33. Harrison Musgrave, West Virginia, 6’1 205, 21.25 Y.O.

Musgrave is another Phillies pick who had Tommy John surgery in his career, but he’s over a year removed from that now and working his way back.  His fastball is now up to the low-90′s, and his changeup is his best secondary pitch.  His breaking ball needs work, and according to a tweet he made last week, he plans on doing that at West Virginia again, not as a professional.

High School/Junior College Right-Handed Pitchers

12. Griffin Jax, Cherry Creek HS (Colorado), 6’1 190, 18.52 Y.O.

Despite being in Colorado, Cherry Creek has been one of the better programs in the country in recent years.  Jax’s two way play has been a large part of that.  During his senior year, he won Colorado’s Gatorade Player of the Year, and now he’ll have the choice of signing with the Phillies or following through his commitment to Air Force.  His fastball velocity is in the high-80′s, and that should get better as he gets stronger.  His curveball shows some depth, and he has a little feel for a changeup.

21. Mark Meadors, Cowley County CC, 6’4 200, 21.31 Y.O.

This is a program that has produced some major leaguers, and the Phillies hope Meadors can be the next one.  His fastball sits in the low 90′s now, but there may be a little more in him if he gets stronger.  It has some downward movement too, and along with a slider that he can also throw for strikes, he could become an effective reliever.  He struck out 61 in 74 innings in 2013.

24. Will Morris, College of Southern Nevada, 6’4 180, 20.08 Y.O.

Now three years removed from Bryce Harper’s monster season, CSN isn’t getting as much attention as they used to.  He threw four complete games this season, and it’s not a surprise that he chose to sign rather than follow through with his commitment to a Division-II school.

28. Matt Southard, Yavapai College, 6’9 220, 21.12 Y.O.

Southard had 49 strikeouts and 33 walks in 63.2 innings.  I can’t find any scouting information on him, but it’s not surprising that a tall pitcher would have problems throwing strikes.  Yavapai has produced several major leaguers such as Curt Schilling, and it’s where Phillies’ relief prospect Kenny Giles went to school too.

32. Tyler Viza, Desert Vista HS (Arizona), 6’3 180, 18.61 Y.O.

An uptick in velocity didn’t lead to Viza being drafted higher than expected, so he’s probably still headed for the University of Utah.  Instead of pitching in the mid to high-80′s, he was reaching the low 90′s, and that could become the usual for his fastball velocity as he gets stronger.  His slider has some potential, and he’s already showing feel for a changeup.

37. Ryley MacEachern, Salisbury School (Connecticut), 6’2 213, 19.01 Y.O.

MacEachern is committed to Stony Brook to stay in the region.  Earlier reports of his fastball velocity indicate he regularly throws in the high-80′s with a slider and curveball.  He apparently has some pitchability already.

38. Dimitri Casas, Cherry Creek HS (Colorado), 6’4 195, 18.02 Y.O.

Casas is committed to play at West Virginia.  Apparently the Phillies’ area scout that covers Colorado earned some overtime this spring.

Check out Part 1 of our Phillies 2013 Draft Review – Position Players.

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A couple years ago, Rany Jazayerli at Baseball Prospectus posted an interesting study that showed generally, younger high school hitters develop more than older ones.  He broke them down into five groups based on age at draft day, very young, young, average, old and very old.  If this is any indication of how this class will turn out, the news isn’t good.  Of the 10 prep hitters they drafted, eight are either old or very old.  The two that aren’t are unlikely to sign.  Hopefully the ones that do can be the exceptions.

Catcher

2. Andrew Knapp, California, Bats Switch, Throws Right, 6’1 192, 21.56 Y.O.

In a historically weak draft for college catchers, Knapp stands out as a potential everyday player.  He’s a bat-first player right now, but with more experience behind the plate, he could be a solid defender too.  He has power potential from both sides of the plate, but unless he cleans up his swing a bit, it’s more likely that he’ll be known as more of a contact hitter.  With solid athleticism and a strong arm, the ingredients for a decent defensive catcher are there with some work.

4. Jake Sweaney, Garces Memorial HS (California), Bats Right, Throws Right, 6’3 180, 18.54 Y.O.

To me, this was the surprise pick of the draft.  With Deivi Grullon coming over from the Dominican Republic this year, I didn’t think they would go for another young catcher this year.  I was obviously wrong though, and there’s nothing wrong with Sweaney as a player.  He was a two sport star in high school, and his athleticism stands out on the diamond.  He needs work behind the plate, but his arm is strong.  He has the size and strength for some power potential, but like Knapp it’ll be more likely that he becomes a contact hitter.

20. Corey Bass, North Florida, Bats Right, Throws Right, 5’10 200, 22.10 Y.O.

There’s not that much info out there on Bass, but he has signed and will probably play for Williamsport.  He doesn’t seem to be much of a hitter, but as a senior from a decent baseball conference, he should have some nice experience.  Based on velocity reports from him pitching in high school, he has a good arm.

Second Base

14. Sam Dove, Georgia Tech, Bats Right, Throws Right, 6’2 188, 22.51 Y.O.

Despite his size, Dove has almost no power, but he’s a decent athlete and will provide some versatility.  He mostly played third base his last couple years at Georgia Tech, but he also has experience in the outfield and second base, where he’ll probably play the most.  He’ll make pretty good contact with decent on-base ability.  His speed isn’t overwhelming at all, but he’s a smart player who can steal bases efficiently.

29. Cavan Biggio, St. Thomas HS (Texas), Bats Left, Throws Right, 6’2 185, 18.14 Y.O.

If amateur baseball players were selected in order based on talent, Craig’s son would have been drafted on day one.  Instead, teams stayed away from him until the Phillies late on the third day, expecting him to honor his strong commitment to Notre Dame.  Cavan has a pretty polished swing that can make hard contact to all fields, and he has a pretty nice plate approach too.  He could develop average power down the road, but the real question is his defensive home.  His athleticism may be a bit short for second base, and his arm may be a bit weak for third base.

36. Dalton Dulin, Memphis University HS (Tennessee), Bats Switch, Throws Right, 5’8 165, 19.06 Y.O.

Dulin has an impressive background as the son of Tim Dulin, owner of a travel team that has helped train many major leaguers.  He can make pretty consistent contact and has good speed, but the rest of his game is in question.  At his size, any power production is unlikely, and it’s almost certain he’ll have to move to second base.  What can’t be questioned is his high level of energy, and he’ll probably be suiting up for Ole Miss next spring.

Shortstop

1. J.P. Crawford, Lakewood HS (California), Bats Left, Throws Right, 6’2 180, 18.39 Y.O.

In a thin draft overall, shortstop was an especially thin position.  Crawford is a true shortstop though with above average athleticism and arm strength plus the soft hands needed.  At the plate, he’s going to take some time.  He needs to add some strength and work out some mechanical issues in his swing to ever hit at a major league level.  He has the hand-eye coordination to make good contact.  Although he’s raw in the batter’s box, he’s a smart player which aids him on defense as well as the basepaths.

3. Jan Hernandez, Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy (Puerto Rico), Bats Right, Throws Right, 6’1 194, 18.41 Y.O.

The first player ever drafted out of Beltran’s academy in Puerto Rico is Hernandez, but he’ll likely become a third baseman as a professional.  His range is a bit short to stay up the middle, but as a decent athlete with a strong arm, defensively he does profile at the hot corner.  He’ll have to work to make sure his bat fits there though.  He already has some strength and good bat speed, so he does have a chance at third base.

40. Jose Haros, San Fernando HS (California), Bats Right, Throws Right, 6’2 175, 18.43 Y.O.

Haros was the Phillies’ last pick.  Gary Matthews also went to San Fernando.

Third Base

7. Trey Williams, College of the Canyons, Bats Right, Throws Right, 6’1 210, 19.23 Y.O.

At one point in 2012, Williams was a potential first round pick, but serious questions about his effort and desire to play baseball caused teams to stay away.  After a solid year on the junior college circuit, he improved his stock by five rounds.  He fits the hot corner prototype with potential plus power and a plus arm.  He’s not much of an athlete, limiting his potential defensively.  What he’ll need to do is make adjustments to his swing so he can more frequently capitalize on his strong bat speed.  If he puts in the work, this could be a steal for the Phillies.

13. Joey Martarano, Fruitland HS (Idaho), Bats Right, Throws Right, 6’4 235, 18.84 Y.O.

The Phillies already signed third rounder Cord Sandberg away from a football commitment to Mississippi State, but their work is cut out for them with Martarano.  He’s committed to Boise State to play linebacker, and the Broncos don’t play baseball.  They could always work out a deal for him to play football in the fall and baseball in the off-season, but this never seems to result in a good baseball player, so to me, either the Phillies get him to commit to baseball or let him go.  He has some of the best raw power in the draft, so the payoff for the Phillies is there.  He has a long swing and could whiff a lot though.  He probably doesn’t have the foot speed to continue playing third base.

15. Logan Pierce, Troy, Bats Left, Throws Right, 6’0 215, 23.33 Y.O.

There’s not much information available on Pierce.  He was an incredibly productive hitter for the Trojans, leading them to the NCAA post-season.  He had twice as many walks as strikeouts in his senior season, but he doesn’t seem to be much of an athlete.

39. Brandon Wagner, Immaculata HS (New Jersey), Bats Left, Throws Right, 6’0 210, 17.77 Y.O.

Wagner evidently has some power potential and is committed to Howard College.

Outfield

3. Cord Sandberg, Manatee HS (Florida), Bats Left, Throws Left, 6’3 215, 18.41 Y.O.

Sandberg was actually the first pick the Phillies were able to sign despite his commitment to Mississippi State to play quarterback.  He has the arm strength one would expect from a top quarterback prospect, and even though he’s a decent athlete, he probably fits better in right field than center.  This spring, he made strides hitting the ball consistently, and that could continue to improve as he now focuses on baseball full time.  He has the strength for above average potential, but it’s going to take continued adjustments to his swing to tap into it.

6. Jason Monda, Washington State, Bats Left, Throws Left, 6’4 205, 21.78 Y.O.

Monda could be a surprisingly difficult sign for a college player taken this high in the draft.  His brother also plays for the Cougars, and he plans on attending medical school.  On the field, he has never delivered the performance scouts expected to see.  His swing looks like it should produce good batting averages, but his plate approach needs a lot of work.  He’s a decent athlete with a good arm and should fit in right field if he signs.

8. Justin Parr, Illinois, Bats Left, Throws Right, 6’2 190, 22.53 Y.O.

Parr was one of college baseball’s leading hitters in 2013, finishing with an average just under .400 for the season.  He’s an average player across the board with decent athleticism and arm strength.  He played three different positions in three years at Illinois, and he could settle in right field as a professional.  Both of his brothers also played baseball for the Illini.

30. Venn Biter, Rossview HS (Tennessee), Bats Left, Throws Right, 6’1 181, 18.60 Y.O.

Biter is committed to play at UAB.  Both his high school coach and the staff at UAB praise his tools and work ethic, but I guess that’s pretty standard.  He’s described as a good athlete with power potential.  I would imagine he’s not signing.

35. Nick Ferdinand, Delaware, Bats Right, Throws Right, 6’1 210, 23.42 Y.O.

Ferdinand led the CAA, a surprisingly decent baseball conference, in home runs during his senior season.  He grew up in the Philadelphia area.

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In past years, they would always take fliers on talented players later in drafts that were believed to be unsignable.  Their scouts would do great work (and six-figure signing bonuses) to entice those players to sign, and this is how they got players like Brown and Jarred Cosart, among others.  In 2012, the first year draft spending limits were in place, they made little effort to try and find these players later in drafts.

SS Tim Anderson, East Central Community College: More and more, it’s looking as if the Phillies will need to take Anderson 16th overall if they want him.  His stock is rising in the days leading up to the draft as teams realize this class of shortstops is as shallow as they come.  Few players at the top of the draft have a chance to stick at shortstop as professionals, and Anderson is in that group.  He’s a great athlete with plus-plus speed and the arm to play on the left side of the infield.  Junior college hitters from Mississippi tend to be raw though, and that certainly applies to his swing.  He’s not going to hit for power, and it could take some time for him to adjust to pro-quality pitching day in and day out.

CF Ryan Boldt, Red Wing HS: Boldt could have been a late first round pick had he stayed healthy this spring, but a knee injury cut his season short.  Now, teams who feel they have a little extra money to spend in the second round will have a shot at him.  His athleticism and baseball IQ make him a quality base stealer and defensive outfielder.  His bat speed can produce hard contact and gap power, and even if he’s never really a home run hitter, he should contribute offensively with a high average and his speed.  With below average power and fringe average arm strength, he has a true center field profile.

SS J.P. Crawford, Lakewood HS (California): Even before this season, the Phillies were probably already familiar with Crawford after drafting one of his teammates, Shane Watson, in the first round last year.  He’s the best shortstop available in the draft, and as a result, may not even be available with the 16th pick.  His fielding and arm strength are both above average to plus tools, giving him a pretty easy chance to stay at shortstop long term.  Whoever drafts him will need to be patient though because his swing needs a lot of work.  He more than likely will never hit for power, and he needs to do a lot of work on his swing to take advantage of his bat speed and drive the ball more.

SS Travis Demerritte, Winder-Barrow HS: Demerritte is actually a third baseman professionally, but he has the potential to be really good there for a patient team.  He has a great arm and solid athleticism, making him a great fit for the hot corner.  His bat speed is incredible, and he has the strength to hit for enough power to profile at the position.  The only question about him, and it’s a big one, is his hit tool.  Right now, his swing is pretty ugly, and it’s going to take a lot of adjustments for him to put bat on ball consistently.  That’s never scared the Phillies off though, and he’s probably a second round pick.

2B JaCoby Jones, Louisiana State: Jones offers the athleticism and upside the Phillies love, pretty uncommon for a college bat.  Unfortunately, he also comes with the rawness of a high school player, and there’s a high probability things never click for him.  He has average power to all fields and can steal bases, and his arm is good enough for him to potentially play third base too.  He strikes out a lot though and doesn’t have a great plate approach.  If a team can overhaul his swing successfully, they could have a steal in the fourth or fifth rounds.  That’s much easier said than done though.

C Andrew Knapp, California: In this weak draft, high school catching is actually one of the strengths, but I think going for the top college backstop in the second or third round would be a better fit for the organization.  That’s exactly what Knapp is.  His defense needs work because he’s pretty new to the position, but he has the arm and skills to become a solid defender behind the plate.  His offense will always come first though.  He’s a switch hitter with decent power from both sides of the plate, but he’ll probably be more of a contact hitter.  The Phillies should have the personnel to help him develop his receiving skills to become an everyday major leaguer.

CF Michael Lorenzen, Cal State Fullerton: There is plenty of thought that Lorenzen should and will pitch as a professional, but I wouldn’t want to pass up on the opportunity to get a center fielder with his upside.  As a reliever, he can throw in the high 90′s, and that obviously translates to a great arm in the outfield.  He’s a great athlete who can run the bases and could be the best defensive player in college baseball.  With his 6’3, 200 pound frame, he offers impressive power potential too.  Until his junior season with the Titans though, he really didn’t perform too well.  He’s now hitting for much better contact, allowing him to tap into that raw power and become a star.  He could be a second round pick.

CF Terry McClure, Riverwood HS: McClure is the kind of athlete that the Phillies seem to target every year, and he’s already shown flashes of in-game performance that’s important to teams.  His spring has been inconsistent though, and that means he could be on the board until the 5th round.  His combination of speed and power potential is really intriguing, especially for a center fielder, and a team could be rewarded with his high ceiling.  He has to improve his plate approach though, but he’s a very young player and has plenty of time to improve.

RF Hunter Renfroe, Mississippi State: All of the buzz surrounding the Phillies in the first round indicates they’re not expecting to take a college player, but Renfroe would be tough to pass up at 16 if he ends up falling.  Things have finally clicked for him in his junior season, and his stock is up considerably compared to where it was to start the season.  His raw power rates as plus or even plus-plus and could become the kind of middle of the order impact bat the team desperately needs.  His swing and pitch recognition still need to improve though, and that could be a significant hurdle.  Defensively, he has a great arm and really good athleticism.

1B Dominic Smith, Serra HS: High school first basemen rarely go in the first round of the draft, but Smith’s bat is good enough that he could potentially be a top 10 pick.  He has a strong arm and possibly just enough athleticism to not embarrass himself in right field, but teams would probably settle for his above average defense at first.  He makes hard contact, and he does so frequently.  It can go to all fields, and he has the power potential to easily profile at an offensively demanding position.  He tops it off with a very good plate approach, and he could be the bat the Phillies are looking for at 16.

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In the first round, the Phillies will pick 16th overall.  Next will be the 53rd pick in the second round, and they’ll have two third round picks, their own plus a compensation pick from not signing last year’s third rounder Alec Rash.  The draft pool assigned to the Phillies is a shade over $6 million, nearly $2 million more than they spent on last year’s draft.  They’ll likely spend a little more just because you have to when you’re picking 16th and not in the 40′s, but there’s little danger they’ll even approach that amount.

They doubled up on high school pitching with their first two picks last year, and it wouldn’t be surprising if they went in that direction again.  High school pitching is one of the strengths of this below average draft class, and they should be looking for the best players available.  It’s tough to say what they might do exactly because they haven’t chosen this high in a draft since they took Gavin Floyd fourth overall 12 years ago.  Here are some of the arms that stand out to me.

LHP Trey Ball, New Castle HS (Indiana): Ball is ranked higher than 16th in just about every ranking I’ve seen, so this is probably a bit of wishful thinking on my part.  He’s a true two-way player that could be a high pick pitching or hitting, but he probably is a better pitcher.  At 6’6 with two potential plus pitches, he has the size and upside the Phillies love in a high school arm.  He has some mechanical issues to work out like many in the high school ranks, but getting a player with his potential at 16th overall would be a good start to any draft.

LHP Ian Clarkin, Madison HS (California): Unlike Ball, Clarkin doesn’t fit the mold of a usual high school pitcher drafted by the Phillies.  Every site seems to have a different height listed for him, so it seems likely that he won’t be able to get much stronger and add to his 90-92 MPH fastball, but he can still work with that.  His curveball may be the best in the class among his high school peers, and he shows a bit of a feel for a changeup already with some movement and adequate dip in velocity.  He’s decently advanced for a high school pitcher.

RHP Alex Gonzalez, Oral Roberts: Gonzalez broke out in 2013, and even though he wasn’t facing the cream of the crop of the college game in the Southland Conference.  He doesn’t have the upside of a number one starter and probably not even a number two, but he’s expected to be drafted in the teens by a team looking for a safe pick.  He works with a fastball, cutter and slider, all average or above average pitches.  He throws strikes and should be durable.  His fastball can touch 94, but he’ll work in the low 90′s.

LHP Hunter Green, Warren East HS: Green on the other hand isn’t a safe pick.  His mechanics need a lot of work, but the potential reward will be too much for a team to pass up in the first or second round.  His fastball velocity has been inconsistent, ranging anywhere from 86-95, but at 6’3 or 6’4 and 180 pounds, he can get stronger and hit the higher part of that range a little more regularly.  His curveball has potential to be above average, but the most important thing for him is straightening out his delivery to be able to throw quality strikes.

RHP Hunter Harvey, Bandys HS: Harvey offers a nice mix of upside and signability; he’s not even committed to any college, so drafting him and getting him into a uniform shouldn’t be difficult.  His fastball has gotten up to the mid-90′s, and he has room on his frame to add strength and consistent velocity.  He’s shown a potential plus curveball, but he needs to make some minor adjustments to his mechanics to sharpen it up.  He doesn’t throw a third pitch at all right now.

LHP Sean Manaea, Indiana State: Once thought of as a candidate to go first overall, injuries and ineffectiveness have made Manaea maybe the draft’s biggest wild cards.  Over the off-season, he looked like an ace with a mid-90′s fastball and sharp breaking ball, but both have been more average pitches this spring.  It’s possible that if he’s not offered money worthy of a high pick, he could go back to Indiana State and hope for a smoother senior season.

RHP Adam Plutko, UCLA: Usually when the Phillies draft college starters after the first round, they tend to be more polished arms with more pitchability than stuff.  That’s where Plutko comes in.  His fastball hangs around 90 MPH, sometimes a tick above or below, and with a changeup and pair of breaking balls, he’s been very successful in one of the nation’s tougher conferences.  Once thought of as a potential first rounder, he should be available in the third round for a team looking for a pitcher that could move through the minors quickly.  In the past, he’s worked out with former Phillie Dave Coggin who now runs a performance academy for young baseball players.

RHP Ryne Stanek, Arkansas: Like Manaea, Stanek was in the early discussion to be drafted first overall, but an uneven spring has him falling on draft boards.  He still likely won’t fall to the Phillies, but it’s in the realm of possibility.  When he’s at his best, he can go upstairs with a mid-90′s fastball to record strikeouts and also bury batters with a hard breaking ball.  His stuff has been worse in his junior season, but teams could still draft him hoping they can make the adjustments he needs to pitch that way again consistently.

RHP Devin Williams, Hazelwood West HS: Williams is one more high school arm that tends to interest the Phillies.  He’s athletic and has the chance to add more velocity down the road.  Right now his fastball sits in the 90-92 MPH range, but he could add strength and add a couple ticks.  His mechanics are poor as of now, and his secondary pitches need a lot of work.   He’s one of a number of higher upside arms that will be available with the 16th pick.

LHP Tom Windle, Minnesota: Windle almost certainly isn’t a first round type pitcher like Plutko, but he’ll go to a team in the second or third rounder to a team looking for a pretty safe pitcher.  Teams are always looking for big lefties, and that gives teams hope that he could improve on his high-80′s to low-90′s fastball.   His slider and changeup are both only average pitches too, so his value lies in his ability to pound the strike zone and provide durable innings.

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Catcher: Average

With Carlos Ruiz’s contract set to expire, and whether he finishes the season with the Phillies or not, they need a catcher of the future.  They first thought that could be Sebastian Valle, but that ship has seriously sailed.  Tommy Joseph has starter potential, but he’s only hit well enough in one out of three seasons in his career to indicate that could happen.  He’s hitting poorly again this year and is now on the DL with a concussion.  Cameron Rupp is nothing more than a backup, and recent signing Deivi Grullon is only 17 years old and far, far away from ever having an impact, if he ever does.  The point is, no player in the organization should be preventing them from taking a catcher if he’s at the top of their board.

First base: Average

It’s really hard to compare first depth because there are so few legitimate first base prospects in the minors.  Many players who will play the position in the majors are playing elsewhere right now.  Darin Ruf could provide some power, and Clearwater’s Chris Serritella was thought to have some potential from last year’s draft, but he hasn’t been good at all this season.  2013′s draft has a real rarity, a high school first baseman that will be drafted in the first round, Dominic Smith from California.  He could be available at 16th for the Phillies as one of the best bats in the draft.

Middle infield: Below average

This is a very thin spot in the system, especially at shortstop.  Roman Quinn probably won’t be able to play the position at the major league level, and that really leaves no one promising in the organization.  At second base, at least they have Cesar Hernandez in AAA who could be an average player.  There’s no star talent here, so shortstop is certainly one position to target.  If draft picks can’t stick at shortstop as professionals, they often become second or third basemen.  Targeting shortstops often provides depth at other positions in future seasons since they’re the best athletes.  The lack of depth here is one of the more concerning aspects of the system.

Third base: Above average

After over a decade of failing to develop anything at this position, the Phillies could actually have some internal options coming through.  Cody Asche will be first up despite a pretty mediocre start to the 2013 season.  Like Hernandez, his potential is really just that of an average player, but average looks pretty good compared to their recent efforts developing their own third baseman.  Perhaps the top bat in the system belongs to Maikel Franco in Clearwater.  He still has a lot of work to do with his plate approach, but he has All-Star potential.  Young players like Mitch Walding and Zach Green offer other raw options, and for once, it seems like this is not a sore spot for the organization.

Corner outfield: Below average

The big club has been lacking power for years now, and that trickles down through the organization.  There really isn’t anyone that profiles as an everyday player playing in a full-season league right now.  Maybe Larry Greene could become that kind of player.  His walk rate is impressive, but his power has not come as advertised, and it’s almost comical how much he strikes out.  Dylan Cozens could prove to be a huge power threat too, but he’s still so far away that no one can say what will happen with confidence.  Jose Pujols was a big Latino signing along with Grullon, and he has impact power too.  He’s yet to appear in a professional game though.

Center field: Average

The saving grace here is Carlos Tocci who hasn’t even been performing well in low-A, albeit as a 17 year old.  The performances of the center fielders in the upper minors, Tyson Gillies and Zach Collier, have been abysmal at best.  Neither had greater potential than average starter at best anyway, but in a season where Ben Revere is looking more like a minor leaguer than a long-term solution, it doesn’t appear they’ll be getting help anytime soon.  Aaron Altherr’s hot start has been a pleasant surprise, but his strikeout rate and high BABIP are potential red flags.  He’ll have to prove his start is for real in the coming months.  Like shortstop, center field depth is important because often times those players become good corner outfielders later in their careers.

Right-handed pitching: Below average

Even if Jonathan Pettibone wasn’t about to graduate from prospect status, they would probably still be below average.  Now that he’s essentially out of prospect discussions, Ethan Martin is the organization’s best right-handed pitching prospect, followed by Shane Watson.  Watson could very well turn out to be a great pitcher, but he’s very unproven right now.  Despite being in triple-A, it’s more likely that Martin is pitching in relief in his career rather than in the rotation.  Mitch Gueller, another 2012 first rounder, has potential too, but he’s not even pitching in Lakewood yet.  Teams can never have enough pitching depth, and the Phillies certainly need it from the right side.

Left-handed pitching: Above average

I hesitated to go above average here, but the strength of Jesse Biddle and Adam Morgan was enough.  Beyond them, the depth is almost non-existent.  Austin Wright, drafted in the same class as Morgan, has suddenly contracted Steve Blass Disease with Reading and isn’t on the map at all right now.  Fortunately, if this draft class does have a strength, it’s in high school pitching.  The Phillies will have a chance to address pitching depth from both sides in June if they choose to do so.

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Low-A 1B Art Charles, 22 (107 PA, .272 BA, .346 OBP, .478 SLG, 15 R, 4 HR, 18 RBI, 23.4 K%, 10.3 BB%)

The Phillies acquired Charles in the spring training trade that sent Michael Schwimer to Toronto, and he reached full-season ball for the first time in 2013.  At 6’6 and 220 pounds he has some raw power, but he has a lot of trouble making contact with a strikeout rate in nearly 30% of his career plate appearances.  He’s an okay defender at first base, but he doesn’t have the athleticism to play any other position.

This year, he is putting bat on ball a little more often.  His .272 average is nearly 30 points higher than his career mark, and his lower strikeout rate plus a BABIP in line with the rest of his career indicates that it might not just be about luck.  At 22 years old in his third professional season, he’s too old for this level, but his transition from short-season ball to full has been smooth so far.

Low-A C Chace Numata, 20 (92 PA, .310 BA, .359 OBP, .452 SLG, 5 R, 2 HR, 16 RBI, 6.5%, 15.2 K%)

Numata was drafted in the 14th round of the 2010 draft after playing shortstop in high school.  The Phillies thought he could work behind the plate though, and he’s been making the transition ever since.  His progress has been slow though.  He’s a raw player, and a hamate injury cost him most of the 2011 season.  He won’t turn 21 until later in the season, so he’s not any older than most players in the South Atlantic League.

His offense in 2013 has come out of nowhere.  In 84 games before 2013, Numata batted just .224 with no patience or power.  This year, the balls have been dropping in a little bit more, and he hasn’t just been a singles hitter.  He has to become a little more patient still, but strikeouts aren’t a problem either.  Behind the plate, he has a lot of work to do still, particularly when it comes to blocking pitches and keeping balls in front of him, but his caught stealing percentage has improved to 31% on the season.

High-A RF Cameron Perkins, 22 (141 PA, .361 BA, .386 OBP, .579 SLG, 21 R, 3 HR, 20 RBI, 3.5 BB%, 11.3 K%)

Perkins was a pretty solid player coming out of Purdue in last year’s draft, and he hasn’t skipped a beat moving right to Clearwater to start his first full season.  His pro debut last year with Williamsport was solid, but the advertised power from the 6’5, 195 pound third baseman wasn’t there.  He did bat over .300 though and show he wouldn’t be lost having to swing a wood bat.

Moving to right field to accommodate Maikel Franco at the hot corner, Perkins has continued to show he can put bat on ball consistently and is one of the leading hitters in minor league baseball so far.  The power has improved too, mostly in the form of doubles in the Florida State League though.  He was never a patient hitter as an amateur, and that’s continued with a pretty low professional walk rate.  When he reaches double-A, perhaps as early as this summer, pitchers are going to be able to exploit his aggressiveness.

High-A RHP Gabriel Arias, 23 (36 IP, 1.25 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 19.0 K%, 6.3 BB%) 

Arias once signed for $100,000, and a six digit bonus usually indicates a Latin American talent to keep an eye on.  Things never really panned out for him though, and he pitched in the Dominican Summer League for parts of four seasons before finally playing stateside in 2011.  Between Williamsport and Lakewood in 2011 and 2012, he pitched to a 3.47 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 132.1 innings, mostly in relief.

At the end of 2012, he started getting innings in the rotation, and he’s back there this season with Clearwater.  His stats have actually been better as a starter than a reliever, and he’s going to have to move quickly to make up for all the years he spent pitching in the Dominican.  Scouting wise, not much is known about Arias.  His below average strikeout rate but good walk rate would indicate his stuff isn’t overwhelming but throws a lot of strikes.  At 6’2 and 185 pounds, he’s big enough that he shouldn’t have problems with durability.

Double-A LHP Mauricio Robles, 24 (19 IP, 1.42 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 37.0 K%, 11.0 BB%)

This is Robles’ first year in the organization after signing as a minor league free agent from Seattle.  Just two years ago, he was actually the team’s #6 prospect according to Baseball America, but elbow injuries and poor performances have knocked him off.  He spent most of his career in the rotation, but at 24 and now in relief, he still has a chance to reach the majors.

Robles has pitched in triple-A before, so it’s not too surprising that he’s having success at Reading.  When he was healthy, his fastball sat in the 91-95 MPH range, and it’s not unreasonable to believe it could be back there now pitching in short bursts out of the bullpen.  He complements it with a changeup, once considered the best in the Seattle organization.  This season, his strikeout rate is through the roof, and his walk rate is much lower than it has been in a long time.  Thanks to his changeup, he’s actually been better against righties this season.  With the way the Phillies’ bullpen has performed so far this year, anyone pitching well in the upper levels of the system could get a shot.

Double-A RHP Seth Rosin, 24 (39.1 IP, 3.20 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 17.7 K%, 3.2 BB%)

Rosin was picked up in last summer’s Hunter Pence trade, and his transition to the upper levels of the minors has been very good so far.  Thanks to an improvement in fastball velocity in 2012 while still with the Giants, he could possibly be a number five starter, but middle relief seems like a much more likely outcome.  He first moved to the rotation last year with the Giants, and the Phillies have kept him there.

Despite the improvement in his fastball, his stuff is still average at best which limits his upside.  His breaking ball and changeup are only average pitches despite his great command.  For a 6’6, 250 pound pitcher, Rosin’s report has a couple anomalies.  He can really command his fastball when it’s unusual for bigger pitchers to have their mechanics straightened out, and his groundball rate is really unimpressive.  He’s already allowed six home runs in less than 40 innings.

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Are they ready?  Triple-A Lehigh Valley entered the season with four of the team’s top 30 prospects in the rotation, two of which already with experience at the level before 2013.  With John Lannan’s injury, it turns out that depth, Tyler Cloyd, Jonathan Pettibone, Adam Morgan and Ethan Martin, will be tested early.  The problem is, they’re mostly not performing well.  The team ERA is nearly a full run above the league average, and a lot of that rests on the shoulders of that group, with the exception of Adam Morgan.  The other three have combined to allow 33 earned runs in 36.2 innings.  Morgan is not on the 40 man roster while the other three are, and he would not be rested enough to start Monday’s game in Lannan’s spot.  They chose to go with Pettibone, even though with nine triple-A starts, probably isn’t ready for the bigs.  Pettibone started slowly last year too (4.33 ERA in April), but he’s going to have to settle in quickly now in the majors.

Starters struggling: Those pitching struggles have been in play throughout the entire system so far.  Nine starters were in Baseball America’s top 30 list prior to this season (including Ethan Stewart at 31), and only three are below their league’s respective average ERA: the aforementioned Adam Morgan, and Jesse Biddle and Brody Colvin with double-A Reading.  Morgan and Biddle’s strikeout rates indicate they’ll likely continue their good performances, while Colvin’s struggles walking more than he strikes out will probably catch up to him.  The reverse is true for 2012 first rounder Shane Watson.  His ERA is 4.76 through three starts, but with a pretty solid strikeout rate (18.8%) and low walk rate (4.4%), that ERA should drop at some point over the next few months.

Franco’s breakout: Maikel Franco was one of the organization’s best hitters in the second half last season, and that has carried over to the opening weeks of 2013.  His .914 OPS is the highest among Baseball America’s top 30 prospects in the organization, and he’s doing it in the Florida State League, far from accommodating for batters.  He has 10 extra base hits in 16 games, and his walk rate has improved from 6.9% to 9.6%, and his strikeout rate is still a reasonable 16.4%.  His batting average is up 38 points, and that will be the question for him moving forward.  If he can make enough contact to use his raw power in games, he could be the organization’s best prospect at this time next year.

Greene’s arrival: 2011 first rounder Larry Greene finally reached full-season ball over the weekend, and his first couple games were certainly unique.  He had eight plate appearances, walked three times and struck out the other five.  It took until his third game to actually put a ball in play when he both recorded a hit and an out other than a strikeout.  After watching the Phillies go a week without walking, a player who can do it like Greene is certainly welcome, but he has to hit too.  In that third game, Greene was caught stealing.  In that same game, Roman Quinn, taken right after Greene in 2011, hit his second home run of the season, a clear reversal of roles from what’s expected.  Quinn now has three professional home runs (and a fourth in an All-Star Game) in 331 career plate appearances, compared to two in 316 for Greene who has at least 60 pounds on Quinn.

Quinn’s speed: Quinn’s speed has come as advertised for Lakewood in the early going, beating out infield singles, taking extra bases and stealing eight bases, more than all but four position players in any team’s top 30 list on Baseball America.  He’ll remain at the top of that leaderboard the entire season as long as he gets on base, something he hasn’t done much so far.  His increased power has come as a pleasant surprise, but at the expense of making good contact and having good on-base skills, it’s not a good tradeoff with his speed.  Compared to 2012, his average is down nearly 40 points, he’s striking out in nearly three out of every 10 plate appearances, and his walk rate is down from 9.1% to 5.6%.  He needs to become more selective again and just put the ball in play and use his speed.

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Triple-A Lehigh Valley

Pitching: One exception to most of the potential impact talent being in the lower levels is Adam Morgan headlining the Lehigh Valley rotation.  Some sources have him as a top 100 prospect in baseball, and he’s the kind of mid-rotation talent the Phillies will need to line up behind Cole Hamels in future seasons.  The IronPigs rotation has depth too.  They’re definitely not on the same tier that Morgan is, but Jonathan Pettibone, Ethan Martin and Tyler Cloyd could all reasonably have major league roles very soon.  B.J. Rosenberg has been the fifth starter in the early going, and he’s clearly not as desirable to see as the rest of the rotation.

Five of the seven relievers on the roster have pitched in the majors, perhaps led by Michael Stutes trying to work his way back from shoulder surgery.  With the way Chad Durbin has pitched so far (and will likely continue to pitch), Stutes should get a shot at some point, and Justin De Fratus could benefit from his struggles too.  Jake Diekman and Joe Savery will very likely pitch for the Phillies at some point too, and it’s important that these young relievers pitch well.  The Phillies need some cheap pitchers in the bullpen to stop Ruben Amaro from tying up more and more of the payroll into relievers.

Infield: After Sebastian Valle spent time with the IronPigs after the Tommy Joseph trade so both could play every day, they swap positions and now Joseph is at triple-A.  He’s the fourth youngest player in the International League, and even though he’s just a step away from the majors, he needs to perform a lot better to actually merit a promotion.  In the field, Cody Asche and Cesar Hernandez offer ML potential.  Hernandez is off to a good start while Asche isn’t, but both should hit their way to the majors this year and give them some young infielders moving forward.  Shortstop will be occupied by fringe players like Pete Orr and Michael Martinez.

Outfield: The Phillies will continue the left field experiment with Darin Ruf in Lehigh Valley, and that means Tyson Gillies is going to have to cover a ton of ground in center.  Ruf’s introduction to triple-A has been solid so far, but Gillies has not found his stroke.  Leandro Castro will round out the outfield in right, and he’ll likely continue to offer ML potential that will be undermined by his desire to swing at every pitch thrown to him.

Double-A Reading

Pitching: Reading doesn’t have quite the rotation Lehigh Valley does, but they do have the top prospect in the organization, lefty Jesse Biddle.  Moving from high-A to double-A is considered to be the biggest jump in the minors, and the improvements he’s made in his secondary pitches and command are sure to be tested.  Austin Wright gives them a second top 30 lefty in the system, but he’s off to a miserable start, walking 11 batters in six innings.  The organization probably hopes Brody Colvin can still break out, but I think that ship has sailed.  Seth Rosin, acquired in the Hunter Pence trade, and David Buchanan round out the rotation with a couple fringy prospects.

Their bullpen isn’t as deep as Lehigh Valley’s, but there’s still some talent there.  Kyle Simon has been getting save opportunities in the early going, and he should make his ML debut pretty soon as a groundball specialist that can get strikeouts too.  Tyler Knigge and Jay Johnson may have some middle relief potential, and Juan Sosa was thought to have rule 5 draft potential during the off-season, but he’s already walked eight batters in 5.1 innings.  Righty Edgar Garcia is back in the organization after two years away.  At one point, he was the team’s number four prospect, but that was seven years ago, and he’s just a longshot at this point.

Infield: Manager Dusty Wathan will have a tough situation to manage behind the plate with both Cameron Rupp and Sebastian Valle vying for playing time.  Rupp could be getting the lion’s share of time behind the plate by the end of the year, but surprisingly in the early going, Valle actually has two walks to none for Rupp.  The infield is comprised entirely of org players, including Albert Cartwright who was once acquired for Sergio Escalona.  Shortstop Edgar Duran is the youngest of the bunch at 22 years old, not particularly young for double-A.

Outfield: The outfield does have a bit of potential, starting with Zach Collier in centerfield.  He still has a lot to prove after missing a lot of time in recent seasons with injuries and a suspension, and he has proved nothing in his first week and a half.  On the other hand, Anthony Hewitt is off to a hot start.  He’s done this before, and as soon as his .450 BABIP drops, his stats will be more in line with his career norms.  Ronnie Welty, acquired just before the season started for Julio Rodriguez, has fifth outfielder potential, but he’s 25 and has to get a move on if he’s going to fulfill it.

High-A Clearwater

Pitching: After 2012′s rotation featured Biddle, Morgan and Wright, the Threshers will have a rotation not nearly as good.  Ethan Stewart has some potential, but his stuff is only average, and he hasn’t thrown enough strikes with it so far in his career.  Perci Garner was once thought to be a potential number two starter, but after he struggled last year, he’s back in Clearwater at 24 years old.  He’s had two great starts so far, but since he’s repeating the league, that’s exactly what he should be doing.  Hoby Milner threw over 60 innings for Lakewood last year in a great pro debut, but he wasn’t even good as a starter in college, and he’s going to have to prove he’s a better pitcher now.

The bullpen doesn’t have much depth, but Kenny Giles is one of the top relief prospects in the system.  He’s starting the season on a DL with an oblique strain, but if he can come back healthy, he should advance through the system quickly.  Ryan O’Sullivan, acquired as the player to be named later in last summer’s Joe Blanton trade, has some middle relief potential.  He’s supposed to have solid stuff, but his strikeout rates certainly haven’t reflected that in his career.

Infield: Clearwater features a crowded infield, certainly headlined by third baseman Maikel Franco, off to a great start and keeping up the momentum from the second half of 2012.  He already has nine extra base hits on the season, and his continued breakout would be incredibly huge for the system.  There’s really nothing going on in the middle infield, but there’s some power potential at first base.  Harold Martinez will likely never reach that potential, and Chris Serritella is a long, long shot to be a prospect, simply because the bar is set so high for first base prospects.

Outfield: Aaron Altherr and Kyrell Hudson have finally reached high-A, and Kelly Dugan will be joining them once he’s off the DL.  Hudson is still extremely fast, and he’s still an extremely poor hitter.  Altherr, on the other hand, is off to a really good start, and his breakout potential is still there if he can keep it up.  One interesting name in the outfield mix is Cameron Perkins.  The 2012 sixth rounder was a solid defender at third base with a decent bat, but he had to move elsewhere to be sure Franco gets the bulk of the time at the hot corner.

Low-A Lakewood

Pitching: Lakewood has only won two games in the early going, and one of the reasons is a pretty uninteresting pitching staff.  There’s one notable exception to that, and that’s of course first rounder Shane Watson.  He’ll probably throw in the neighborhood of 130 innings, similar to Colvin and Biddle’s Lakewood debuts.  Other than him, right now there are just organizational arms or potential relievers.  Kevin Brady has a bit of potential after striking out 54 and walking just seven last year in his pro debut.

Steven Inch and Felix Santos have had solid starts out of the bullpen, but there aren’t really expectations for them moving forward as of now.  Aside from Watson, maybe the biggest story of this pitching staff is the names that aren’t here.  The two big ones are 2012 first rounder Mitch Gueller and 18 year old Franklyn Vargas.  Gueller should be up at some point, but it’s a little less clear with Vargas.  His advancement has been much anticipated for a few years now, but since he’s still so young, it’s not a big deal he hasn’t gotten to full-season ball yet.

Infield: The left side of Lakewood’s infield is what to watch here.  Roman Quinn, maybe the second fastest man in professional baseball, could steal at least bases somewhat easily as long as he keeps getting on base, and he’s proven to be pretty adept at doing that so far in his career.  Mitch Walding joins him on the left side at third base, and he’s off to another good start.  This happened last year at Williamsport last year, and he’s going to need the hits to keep dropping in this time around.  Art Charles, acquired for Michael Schwimer, and Willie Carmona will split first base.  I think Carmona can hit a little bit, but he hasn’t gotten off to a good start at all.

Outfield: The 17 year old Carlos Tocci leads the outfield, and he’s performed like a lot of 17 year olds probably would- poorly.  His game is mature for that age, but he still needs to add strength to make harder contact.  It’s a nice test for him, and I would expect him to head to Williamsport later this year.  Brian Pointer retains his sleeper status in the outfield, but in his second go-around with the BlueClaws, he needs to actually put the bat on the ball consistently to make use of his power and patience.  Larry Greene is not here due to conditioning problems, but he should be at some point.

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